Skip to main content

Retail Stocks Won't Join the 2017 Rally

Stocks have rallied since the Trump election and the Dow (DJIA) just passed 20,000 for the 1st time ever, but there is one sector of the stock market that just won't join the party.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 20,000 DJIA Stocks Chart
Dow Jones at 20,000.


Retail stocks continue to lag the overall market, a theme highlighted in our retail stock report from December 2016. While the post-election period saw a boost for many industry groups and the leading stock indices, the consumer retail sector is showing further signs of deterioration. 

Here's a technical snapshot of some of the leading mainstream retailers and retail brands. Included are charts of Nike (NKE), Under Armour, (UAA), Ralph Lauren (RL), Macy's (M), Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT), Kohl's (KSS), and Dollar Tree (DLTR).


Retail Stocks Charts Nike Under Armour Macy Wal-Mart Target
Retail stocks continue to under perform the overall market.


While the market has been offering up many opportunities in stronger groups such as financial services, banks, steel, construction, chemical stocks, semiconductors, tech, and cannabis, these widely-owned retail stocks (with the exception of NKE) have continued to slide. 

Strategy notes: Finding Winners, Cutting Losers

Avoiding these stocks, and other market laggards, has been a key part of my "defensive strategy" for the new year. While many investors prefer to diversify away their risk by holding a multitude of stocks in many industries, I choose to avoid these weak stocks and weak industry groups altogether. 

This gives me the mental, and financial, breathing space to search for potential winning stocks in strong industry groups.

As I wrote in our last report on the weak retail stocks

"...As a position trader focused on larger multi-week and multi-month moves, I want to find stocks that are set to trend higher. At present, neither of these [UAA and NKE] stocks fit that bill; they are fighting against the tide (downtrends).  

We want to buy stocks that are entering new uptrends or stocks that still have some gas in the tank to move higher. This puts the wind at our back, so to speak.

While many stocks and industries have benefited from the recent "Trump rally", retail shares have been quick to give back much (or all) of their gains. This is a red flag for the industry and for many of the individual retail stocks..."

The temptation to hold declining stocks is strong for most retail traders and investors. If you start cutting your losing investments earlier, you will find more financial and emotional breathing room to focus on your winning investments and trades. 

The US stock market is trading at new all-time highs (see: DIA, QQQ, SPY). Focus on buying stocks that are participating to the upside. You don't to spend another leg of the bull market holding laggards and marginal trades... you want to buy and hold winners. This is something I have to remind myself of from time to time! 

Subscribe to the free Finance Trends Newsletter. You can follow our real-time updates on Twitter. 

Popular posts from this blog

The Dot-Com Bubble in 1 Chart: InfoSpace

With all the recent talk of a new bubble in the making, thanks in part to the Yellen Fed's continued easy money stance, I thought it'd be instructive to revisit our previous stock market bubble - in one quick chart.

So here's what a real stock market bubble looks like. 

Here's what a bubble *really* looks like. InfoSpace in 1999-2001. $QQQ$BCORpic.twitter.com/xjsMk433H7
— David Shvartsman (@FinanceTrends) February 24, 2015
For those of you who are a little too young to recall it, this is a chart of InfoSpace at the height of the Nasdaq dot-com bubble in 1999-2001. This fallen angel soared to fantastic heights only to plummet back down to earth as the bubble, and InfoSpace's shady business plan, turned to rubble.

As detailed in our post, "Round trip stocks: Momentum booms and busts", InfoSpace rocketed from under $100 a share to over $1,300 a share in less than six months. 

In a pattern common to many parabolic shooting stars, the stock soon peaked and began a…

William O'Neil Interview: How to Buy Winning Stocks

Investor's Business Daily founder and veteran stock trader, William O'Neil shared his trading methods and insights on buying winning stocks in an in-depth IBD radio interview.

Here are some highlights from William O'Neil's interview withIBD:

William O'Neil's interest in the stock market began when he started working as a young adult. 

"I say many times that I didn't get that much out of college. I didn't have much interest in the stock market until I graduated from college. When I got married, I had to look out into the future and get more serious. The investment world had some appeal and that's when I started studying it. I became a stock broker after I got out of the Air Force."
He moved to Los Angeles and started work in a stock broker's office with twenty other guys. When their phone leads from ads didn't pan out, O'Neil would take the leads and drive down to visit the prospective customers in person.

"I'd get in the c…

New! Finance Trends now at FinanceTrendsLetter.com

Update for our readers: Finance Trends has a new URL! 

Please bookmark our new web address at Financetrendsletter.com

Readers sticking with RSS updates should point your feed readers to our new Finance Trends feedburner.  



Thank you to all of our loyal readers who have been with us since the early days. Exciting stuff to come in the weeks ahead!

As a quick reminder, you can subscribe to our free email list to receive the Finance Trends Newsletter. You'll receive email updates about once every 4-8 weeks (about 2-3 times per quarter). 

Stay up to date with our real-time insights and updates on Twitter.