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Showing posts from October, 2015

How Ray Dalio runs mega-hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates (video)

If you're an investor or market observer you've probably heard of Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates. With $169 billion is assets under management, Bridgewater is the world's largest hedge fund firm. 

So what can those of us with considerably less money learn from Mr. Dalio? Well, we've shared some lessons from this Hedge Fund Market Wizard with you in the past. Now, let's hear from Ray Dalio in this Bloomberg Markets panel discussion with that firm's hugely successful founder, Michael Bloomberg.

How Ray Dalio runs his mega-hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, Bloomberg video. (Hat tip: Exploring Markets).


Highlights and key quotes from Ray Dalio and Michael Bloomberg's talk:

"We're just living out what we're like. For me, Bridgewater, in a nutshell, is meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency. It means we can talk about anything, including mistakes or weaknesses, so that we can deal with…

Best performing US stock index ETF? QQQ (Nasdaq 100)

Charting the performance of the major US stock index ETFs, the QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) wins by a length.

Here's a chart of the QQQ vs. SPY (S&P 500 ETF), DIA (Dow Industrials ETF), and IWM (the Russell 2000 ETF). From the market's early 2009 lows to the present, the QQQ has steadily outpaced its rivals, gaining over 300%.



What began as a close race has turned into a clear victory, to date, for QQQ and its nearest contender, the IWM. Small cap stocks and Nasdaq tech leaders have steadily gained ground over the course of this six-year bull market. They may also decline further when the next bear market arrives.  

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Global Stock Market Returns 2015: Winners and Losers

Global stock market returns for 2015 (yearly gains) via Trading Economics



China's Shanghai Composite index leads (+48%) the major indices on a yearly basis, despite the sharp plunge from June's highs above 5,000. Brazil's Bovespa (-6%) lags, the worst performer of the major indices.

You can find the full global list, covering Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas, at Trading Economics (link above). Here's a quick rundown of the best performing global markets for 2015.

1. China's Shanghai Composite up 48% for the year. The SSEC and new A-Share market ETF, ASHR had a huge run from late 2014 into mid-2015. 

2. Russia Stock Market MICEX is up 26% on a 1-year basis. This ruble-denominated index is moving in on its all-time highs, while the dollar-denominated RTS index sits near 5-year lows.

3. Iceland's SE ICEX is up 51% over the past year. The Icelandic market has been steadily gaining ground the last 5 years after falling off a cliff in the 2007-2008 financial cr…

From Harley to Sotheby's, Retail and Leisure Stocks Slide

Some major leisure and specialty retail names are trending lower in this market. Let's take a quick look at some stock charts and trend analysis shared on Twitter today.

Harley Davidson is down 14% today after it announced "a 6.5% drop in quarterly earnings and a decline in market share". WSJ says the company will boost marketing expenses 65% in an effort to bring itself out of a recent "sales skid". 

Harley (HOG) is down 36% from its 2014 high. Note that the stock formed a long-term double top in 2014 after barely touching its early '07 highs near $75. After failing to make new all-time highs, HOG trended lower and is now breaching 2-year lows.


Ralph Lauren (RL) has trended lower all year; the stock is down 36% year-to-date. After making successive peaks near $190, RL formed a multi-year top and broke through its 2012 lows. See the monthly chart below. 


Similar price action is seen in the long-term chart of Fossil (FOSL), below. 


This mass market retailer enjoy…

Wal-Mart plunges to 3-year low: chart update

Wal-Mart's ($WMT) stock plunged 10% lower today, its worst one day drop in six years, after the company detailed its increased operating expenses and projected lower earnings (click for slides and EPS projections) for its 2017 fiscal year. 

Let's check out the price action and the trends. Wal-Mart daily chart (below). WMT is down 10% this afternoon.



This latest drop on heavy volume brings WMT to a new 3-year low, as the stock hits levels not seen since mid 2012. As you'll note from the monthly chart I shared earlier this week on Twitter, WMT has fallen back into its decade-long trading range, below $70.

$WMT Walmart coming off 3-year lows. Pull the chart back to 1995... back into that decade-long trading range. pic.twitter.com/NbZItNWm6G — David Shvartsman (@FinanceTrends) October 13, 2015
We first highlighted Wal-Mart's drop and retail weakness back in August. See the chart + tweet below.


Wal-Mart $WMT slips to a 3-year low. This follows recent weakness in Kohl's $KS…

Futures winners and losers: VIX jumped, crude oil sank in 2015

Futures, 1-year performance highlights: 

Futures, 1-year: $VIX +33% Nikkei $NKY +13% S&P 500 $SPX +1% Yen $FXY -10% Copper $HG_F -22% Oil $CL_F -51% pic.twitter.com/Hipjg8C2ti — David Shvartsman (@FinanceTrends) October 2, 2015
The VIX volatility index zoomed higher as stocks declined in August and September. Japan's Nikkei 225 topped the Finviz futures list of leading stock indexes. The S&P 500 has managed to eke out a gain of 1% over the past year.

As noted on Twitter, I believe Finviz' data on ethanol futures is incorrect (they show a 1-year gain of 70%). Here's a continuous weekly chart on ethanol that shows a picture of flat returns over last year's prices.  

I believe Finviz' data on Ethanol $EH_F is incorrect. Sorry, let's try that again... pic.twitter.com/Z1WeWEY49d — David Shvartsman (@FinanceTrends) October 2, 2015
Metals and energy prices suffered over the past year, as copper and platinum fell over 20%. Natural gas sank 41%, but the bigg…