Tuesday, October 20, 2015

From Harley to Sotheby's, Retail and Leisure Stocks Slide

Some major leisure and specialty retail names are trending lower in this market. Let's take a quick look at some stock charts and trend analysis shared on Twitter today.

Harley Davidson is down 14% today after it announced "a 6.5% drop in quarterly earnings and a decline in market share". WSJ says the company will boost marketing expenses 65% in an effort to bring itself out of a recent "sales skid". 

Harley (HOG) is down 36% from its 2014 high. Note that the stock formed a long-term double top in 2014 after barely touching its early '07 highs near $75. After failing to make new all-time highs, HOG trended lower and is now breaching 2-year lows.

Harley Davidson stock chart HOG

Ralph Lauren (RL) has trended lower all year; the stock is down 36% year-to-date. After making successive peaks near $190, RL formed a multi-year top and broke through its 2012 lows. See the monthly chart below. 

Ralph Lauren RL long term stock chart

Similar price action is seen in the long-term chart of Fossil (FOSL), below. 

Fossil FOSL monthly stock chart

This mass market retailer enjoyed a huge run from its 2009 lows to its 2011 - 2012 peaks. After 3 moves to the $136 area, and some volatile swings lower, FOSL finally exhausted itself and began trending lower in 2014. FOSL sank below $100 in 2015 and is now down 50% YTD. 

Michael Kors (KORS) is another retail stock that's hit a rough patch. KORS had a strong run from its late-2011 IPO to early 2014, but has clearly struggled over the past year. KORS is down 47% YTD. 

Michael Kors KORS stock chart

In the high end auction space, Sotheby's (BID) is down 21% YTD and well off its 2-year highs. Like RL and KORS, BID clearly saw its top in early 2014 and has trended lower since. Also, if you pull back the BID monthly chart to 2005, you'll see the stock tends to run out of gas at the $55 level.

Sotheby's BID monthly stock chart

Wynn Resorts (WYNN), the last stock in our review, is down 53% YTD. WYNN is one of the leading casino operators, with a major business in Macau and Las Vegas. 

Unfortunately for WYNN, conditions in Macau gaming have not been stellar lately. WYNN is in the midst of its sharpest decline since 2008. The same tough conditions have also affected casino operators MPEL and LVS.

Are there some bright spots shining through the retail industry clouds? Yes, check out our recent WalMart (WMT) vs. Amazon (AMZN) chart post

We'll continue to highlight the strong names, as well as the danger spots, in the weeks ahead. You can follow me on Twitter and StockTwits to be updated in real time.

Disclosure notes: I have no positions (long or short) in any of the stocks mentioned. This, of course, may change at any time after posts are published. Performance data via Finviz. Stock charts courtesy of Freestockcharts.com

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