Niall Ferguson on Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapse

Niall Ferguson recently spoke on "Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses" at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The event summary, presentation transcript and slides, as well as audio and video of the talk and Q&A session, are all available at the PIIE link above.

I happened to watch Niall's historical overview of government debt crises last night, and it certainly put the current problems we are facing with sovereign debt into perspective. On a day when we are greeted with news of Spain losing its AAA rating through a Fitch downgrade, Niall's speech certainly comes at a pressing moment and the lessons he imparts are profound.

Listen closely to Ferguson's conclusion on the historical impact of the bond vigilantes in each public debt crisis. Each time, he points out, interest rates on government debt skyrocketed when bond holders saw an unsustainable fiscal program threaten the viability of a nation's debt repayment and market participants delivered their verdict by driving up interest rates on public debt.

The current crisis period is no different, despite the ravings of politicians who go on about evil speculators "attacking" their poor country's debt. As Ferguson shows, there is a time honored manner "in which financial markets voted on the credibility of a government’s fiscal policy", and the striking feature of public debt crises is the sudden loss of confidence that might befall any nation's public debt.

Enjoy the video and the insights offered in Ferguson's timely historical analysis.

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Welcome, readers! Signup for free email updates at the Finance Trends Newsletter . Update: PDF links removed due to DMCA notice. Please see our extensive Klarman book notes below. New visitors, please check the Finance Trends home page for all new posts. Here's something for anyone who has been trying to get a look at Seth Klarman's now famous, and out of print, 1991 investment book, Margin of Safety . My knowledge of value investing is pretty much limited to what I've read in Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor (the book which originally popularized the investment concept of a "Margin of Safety"), so check out the wisdom from Seth Klarman and other investing greats in our related posts below. You can also go straight to Ronald Redfield's Margin of Safety book notes . Related posts: 1. Seth Klarman interviews and Margin of Safety notes 2. Seth Klarman: Lessons from 2008 3. Investing Lessons from Sir John Templeton 4.

Moneyball: How the Red Sox Win Championships

Welcome, readers . T o get the first look at brand new posts (like the following piece) and to receive our exclusive email list updates, please subscribe to the Finance Trends Newsletter . The Boston Red Sox won their fourth World Series title of t he 21st century this we ek. Having won their first Se ries in 86 years back in 200 4, the last decade-plus has marked a very strong return to form for one of baseball's oldest big league clubs. So how did they do it? Quick background: in late 2002, team own er and hedge fund manager, John W. Henry (with his partners ) bought the Boston Red Sox and its historic Fenway Park for a reported sum of $ 695 million. Henry and Co. quickly set out to find their ideal General Manager (GM) to help turn around their newly acquired, ailing ship. This brings us to one of my fav orite scenes from the 2011 film , Moneyball , in which John W. Henry (played by Ar liss Howard) attempts to woo Oakland A's GM Billy Beane (Brad Pi

William O'Neil Interview: How to Buy Winning Stocks

Investor's B usiness Daily founder and veteran stock trader, William O'Neil share d his trading methods and insights on buying winning stocks in an in-depth IBD radio interview. Here are some highlights from William O'Neil's interview with IBD: William O'Neil's interest in the stock market began when he started working as a young adult. "I say many times that I didn't get that much out of college. I didn't have much interest in the stock market until I graduated from college. When I got married, I had to look out into the future and get more serious. The investment world had some appeal and that's when I started studying it. I became a stock broker after I got out of the Air Force." He moved to Los Angeles and started work in a stock broker's office with twenty other guys. When their phone leads from ads didn't pan out, O'Neil would take the leads and drive down to visit the prospective customers in person.

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