Skip to main content

What's the Baltic Dry Index telling us now?

Saw an interesting tweet from Maoxian over the weekend on the (extreme) inflationary signals that the Baltic Dry Index seems to be giving us.

Have a look at the chart in Maoxian's tweet. I wonder if any of us have ever seen such a devastating decline (-94% drop), followed by such an amazingly quick and robust (BDI is up 427% since its Dec. low) recovery move?

Regulars here at Finance Trends may recall our past discussions of the Baltic Dry Index and its increased use as a gauge of global economic activity. So what is the BDI be telling us now?

Our March 23rd post (previous BDI update) focused on the relationship between (then) recent moves in the price of copper vs. the Baltic Dry Index.

At that time, copper prices were steadily moving higher, despite analysts' claims that the move up was not supported by "real demand"; the move up was supposed to be driven more by a temporary restocking of strategic inventories by the Chinese. I wondered, at that time, if copper would soon run out of steam and follow the dip then underway in the BDI.

As it turns out, both copper and the Baltic Dry Index have continued to move higher since that time. Take a look at this updated chart (courtesy of InvestmentTools.com) below.

So what is the recent strength in Dr. Copper and the Baltic Dry Index telling us now?

Have, as Maoxian recently suggested, the central bankers let loose an inflationary tidal wave? Or are we also starting to see some pick up in base metals prices and dry bulk shipping activity as China's economy expands and the dollar declines?

Related articles and posts:

1. Copper jumps to 7 month high on dollar, China - Bloomberg.

2. Commodities on a record rebound - The Australian.

3. Dry bulk market smiling again - Helenic Shipping News.

4. Dr. Copper is in the news again - Finance Trends.

5. Commodity currencies: follow that ship! - Finance Trends.

Popular posts from this blog

Nasdaq credit rating junked.

S&P cut Nasdaq's credit rating to junk status citing debt burdens and its questionable strategy to buy a controlling interest in the London Stock Exchange. Financial Times reported that the exchange's counterparty credit & bank loan rating were lowered fromm BBB- (lowest investment grade rating) to BB+. The change will increase Nasdaq's borrowing costs should it wish to pursue aquisition targets. For an earlier look at the exchange consolidation trend that brought about Nasdaq's push for a stake in the LSE, please see "Exchange fever" .

Clean Money - John Rubino: Book review

Clean Money by John Rubino 274 pages. Hoboken, New Jersey John Wiley & Sons. 2009. 1st Edition. The bouyant stock market environment of the past several years is gone, and the financial wreckage of 2008 is still sharp in our minds as a new year starts to unfold. Given the recent across-the-board-declines in global stock markets (and most asset classes) that have left many investors shell-shocked, you might wonder if there is any good reason to consider the merits of a hot new investment theme, such as clean energy. However, we shouldn't be too hasty to write off all future stock investments. After all, the market declines of 2008 may continue into 2009, but they may also leave interesting investment opportunities in their wake. Which brings us to the subject of this review. John Rubino, author and editor of GreenStockInvesting.com , recently released a new book on renewable energy and clean-tech investing entitled, Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green Tech Boom . In Clean ...

Seth Klarman: Margin of Safety (pdf)

Welcome, readers! Signup for free email updates at the Finance Trends Newsletter . Update: PDF links removed due to DMCA notice. Please see our extensive Klarman book notes below. New visitors, please check the Finance Trends home page for all new posts. Here's something for anyone who has been trying to get a look at Seth Klarman's now famous, and out of print, 1991 investment book, Margin of Safety .  My knowledge of value investing is pretty much limited to what I've read in Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor (the book which originally popularized the investment concept of a "Margin of Safety"), so check out the wisdom from Seth Klarman and other investing greats in our related posts below. You can also go straight to Ronald Redfield's Margin of Safety book notes .    Related posts: 1. Seth Klarman interviews and Margin of Safety notes     2. Seth Klarman: Lessons from 2008 3. Investing Lessons from Sir John Templeton 4. ...