Skip to main content

Bullish on gold, gold shares

The prognosis for gold bullion and gold mining shares is bullish, according to two reports from market watchers, The Aden Sisters, and Financial Sense contributor Martin Goldberg.

Mary Anne and Pamela Aden are telling investors to "Keep Focused" on the major long-term trend for gold, which is up. Silver is also very strong, and rising against major currencies such as the euro. The Adens currently see a bullish pattern in all the precious metals.

Marting Goldberg, writing in Thursday's FSO Market Wrap-Up, wonders if the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) will break through the important 370 level to the upside.

While the index failed to do so last November during a similar trading range pattern, Goldberg feels that this time the technical indicators are better aligned for an upward move through 370. However, watch out for that overbought signal, which does present the risk of another correction.

One more point from Goldberg's article: he notes that among the less-than-bullish signals for HUI is the fact that "gold stocks are tracking all stocks".

He notes that price movement in the HUI index is lately much in line with that of the S&P mid cap ETF, and is worried over the possibility that they are both driven by similar forces (liquidity induced rallies/declines).

This point is also taken up by Greg Silberman in his recent article, "All Hands on Deck - Gold Bull Run Ahead!". While Silberman is obviously bullish on gold and gold shares, he also points out the worrying correlation between resource shares and the overall stock market.

What has bothered me most about the rise in Gold and Energy (GE) stocks is the close correlation with the Stock Market. Instead of counter-cyclical hedges GE Stocks are behaving like high Beta stocks (as we found out in late February).

Therefore, it stands to reason that if increased liquidity is driving GE’s and other asset prices higher, a decrease in liquidity would do the reverse. How would we see a contraction in liquidity? I’d say we’d see it in the US Dollar.

So while the longer term trend for gold and precious metals looks bullish, we should also examine the possible stumbling blocks that could cause near-term and intermediate-term corrections in gold and gold shares.

Remember, the views represented here are the opinions of their authors. Treat this material as an educational aid, and don't count on any of it as direct investment advice. You alone are responsible for your investment decisions and due dilligence in investment research.

Having said that, enjoy the articles.

Popular posts from this blog

Clean Money - John Rubino: Book review

Clean Money by John Rubino 274 pages. Hoboken, New Jersey John Wiley & Sons. 2009. 1st Edition. The bouyant stock market environment of the past several years is gone, and the financial wreckage of 2008 is still sharp in our minds as a new year starts to unfold. Given the recent across-the-board-declines in global stock markets (and most asset classes) that have left many investors shell-shocked, you might wonder if there is any good reason to consider the merits of a hot new investment theme, such as clean energy. However, we shouldn't be too hasty to write off all future stock investments. After all, the market declines of 2008 may continue into 2009, but they may also leave interesting investment opportunities in their wake. Which brings us to the subject of this review. John Rubino, author and editor of GreenStockInvesting.com , recently released a new book on renewable energy and clean-tech investing entitled, Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green Tech Boom . In Clean

Slate profiles Victor Niederhoffer

Slate's recent profile of writer/speculator, Vic Niederhoffer has been getting some attention from traders and finance types in recent days. I thought we'd take a look at it here too, to offer up some possible educational value from Vic's experiences with trading and loss. Here's an excerpt from Slate's profile of Victor Niederhoffer : " I've enjoyed getting your e-mails. It sounds like you've thought a lot about being wrong. Well, the reason you contacted me, to call a spade a spade, is that I'm sort of infamous for having made a big, notorious, terrible error not once but twice in my market career. Let's talk about those errors. The first was your investment in the Thai baht, which pretty much wiped you out when the Thai stock market crashed in 1997. I made so many errors there it's pathetic. I made one of my favorite errors: "The mouse with one hole is quickly cornered." That is key. There are certain decisions you make in li

Seth Klarman: Margin of Safety (pdf)

Welcome, readers! Signup for free email updates at the Finance Trends Newsletter . Update: PDF links removed due to DMCA notice. Please see our extensive Klarman book notes below. New visitors, please check the Finance Trends home page for all new posts. Here's something for anyone who has been trying to get a look at Seth Klarman's now famous, and out of print, 1991 investment book, Margin of Safety .  My knowledge of value investing is pretty much limited to what I've read in Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor (the book which originally popularized the investment concept of a "Margin of Safety"), so check out the wisdom from Seth Klarman and other investing greats in our related posts below. You can also go straight to Ronald Redfield's Margin of Safety book notes .    Related posts: 1. Seth Klarman interviews and Margin of Safety notes     2. Seth Klarman: Lessons from 2008 3. Investing Lessons from Sir John Templeton 4.