Skip to main content

Managing inflation expectations

Jim Puplava discusses the purposeful jawboning of the Fed's "Open Mouth Committee" in a segment from the June 1 Financial Sense Newshour broadcast. What is the purpose behind this non-stop barrage of talk and signaling to the markets? Jim shares his view:

I think what you saw happen and this was the Open Mouth Committee that you saw throughout the month of May, and parts of June, that scared the bloomers off everybody was inflationary expectations started to increase. The last thing you want as a Federal Reserve is for those inflationary expectations to take hold because then what you have is your money velocity starts to increase. People start buying and spending their cash faster because buy now because the price is going to go up.

That was what they were trying to control with the Open Mouth Committee and they were successful. They brought some of those inflationary expectations down, and that’s why they were so active.

The need to manage inflationary expectations is paramount among central bankers; they must keep up the appearance of "inflation fighters", thereby distracting the public from the true causes of inflation. In a fiat money system, in which currencies are backed by nothing of real value, the currency is held up by government dictat and public faith. When faith in money erodes, the purchasing power of that currency erodes with it. This happens gradually over time and sometimes culminates in a rapid depreciation of monetary value known as hyperinflation.

Many commentators today confuse the cause of inflation (expanding supply of money and credit) with its frequent effect: a rise in prices of goods, services, or assets. A similar confusion exists regarding the true nature of deflation (a contracting supply of money or credit).

The classical definitions of inflation and deflation have been subject to change over time and this is reflected in the current debate. The following quote is taken from an article by Tim Picks entitled, "Understanding Inflation and Deflation".

the definition of inflation has changed over time and is now accepted to mean something very different from its original definition. Dictionaries only reflect what is currently popular, so such definitions should not be blindly accepted.

Originally, inflation meant an increase in the supply of money and credit. Then it morphed into: a rise in the general level of prices caused by an increase in the supply of money and credit. And now it has come to mean the CPI (Consumer Price Index).

This had caused much confusion. It can also lead to flawed analysis and some very bad policy decisions. In my opinion, the currently accepted definition of inflation is full of assumptions, fallacious reasoning, and faulty conclusions.

Now add Jim Puplava's interpretation of inflation as a monetary phenomenon. From a past article entitled, "Good and Bad Inflation":

When a government or central bank creates additional money through fiat means, it creates inflation. The real definition of inflation is an increase in the supply of money beyond any increase in specie. 1

By its very definition, it attributes the real cause of inflation to its root source which is expansion of the supply of money and credit through artificial means. Its real cause is an act of fraudulent intervention into the financial and economic system distorting values, investments, and in the process, the distribution pattern of wealth and income within the economy.

So as you can see, we have two market participants/commentators who do not accept the popular application of the word inflation. The term has been misdefined, and in the process its true meaning has been obscured. Just some food for thought, so keep your ears peeled the next time you hear someone bandying those terms about.

Popular posts from this blog

Clean Money - John Rubino: Book review

Clean Money by John Rubino 274 pages. Hoboken, New Jersey John Wiley & Sons. 2009. 1st Edition. The bouyant stock market environment of the past several years is gone, and the financial wreckage of 2008 is still sharp in our minds as a new year starts to unfold. Given the recent across-the-board-declines in global stock markets (and most asset classes) that have left many investors shell-shocked, you might wonder if there is any good reason to consider the merits of a hot new investment theme, such as clean energy. However, we shouldn't be too hasty to write off all future stock investments. After all, the market declines of 2008 may continue into 2009, but they may also leave interesting investment opportunities in their wake. Which brings us to the subject of this review. John Rubino, author and editor of GreenStockInvesting.com , recently released a new book on renewable energy and clean-tech investing entitled, Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green Tech Boom . In Clean ...

Slate profiles Victor Niederhoffer

Slate's recent profile of writer/speculator, Vic Niederhoffer has been getting some attention from traders and finance types in recent days. I thought we'd take a look at it here too, to offer up some possible educational value from Vic's experiences with trading and loss. Here's an excerpt from Slate's profile of Victor Niederhoffer : " I've enjoyed getting your e-mails. It sounds like you've thought a lot about being wrong. Well, the reason you contacted me, to call a spade a spade, is that I'm sort of infamous for having made a big, notorious, terrible error not once but twice in my market career. Let's talk about those errors. The first was your investment in the Thai baht, which pretty much wiped you out when the Thai stock market crashed in 1997. I made so many errors there it's pathetic. I made one of my favorite errors: "The mouse with one hole is quickly cornered." That is key. There are certain decisions you make in li...

Seth Klarman: Margin of Safety (pdf)

Welcome, readers! Signup for free email updates at the Finance Trends Newsletter . Update: PDF links removed due to DMCA notice. Please see our extensive Klarman book notes below. New visitors, please check the Finance Trends home page for all new posts. Here's something for anyone who has been trying to get a look at Seth Klarman's now famous, and out of print, 1991 investment book, Margin of Safety .  My knowledge of value investing is pretty much limited to what I've read in Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor (the book which originally popularized the investment concept of a "Margin of Safety"), so check out the wisdom from Seth Klarman and other investing greats in our related posts below. You can also go straight to Ronald Redfield's Margin of Safety book notes .    Related posts: 1. Seth Klarman interviews and Margin of Safety notes     2. Seth Klarman: Lessons from 2008 3. Investing Lessons from Sir John Templeton 4. ...