Skip to main content

Fed funds rate raised

From the Reuters UK article:

As widely expected, the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to lift the benchmark federal funds rate target a quarter-percentage point to 5.25 percent, its highest since March 2001.

In a statement announcing its action, the Fed said moderating growth should help ease price pressures, even though it held out the possibility it could extend a two-year credit tightening campaign.


Notice the emphasis on economic growth as a source of inflation. What they don't talk about is the role that money creation has in bringing about inflation. You will not hear a US central banker allude to money supply growth as the cause of inflation, although this is the classical definition. Tally up some broad money supply measure using the available statistics (now that M3 is no longer reported by the Fed) and then tell me where inflation is heading.

We can focus on "price inflation" as measured by core CPI or we can look at money and credit creation to judge liquidity in the system. I'll watch the latter and I'll look to the analysis of those who are knowledgeable enough to relay that information in a way that I can understand. This essay by Dr. Marc Faber, incorporating the work of Doug Noland and others, is an example.

The stock and bond markets rallied today on what was reasoned to be good news. Here's how Reuters summed it up:

U.S. stock and government bond prices rose and the dollar tumbled as financial markets saw the statement as suggesting chances of another boost to borrowing costs in August as lower than traders had wagered before the meeting.

By late afternoon, the blue chip Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> surged 217.24 points, or 1.98 percent, the biggest one day percentage gain in over a year.

Well, let's see what happens on Friday.

Popular posts from this blog

Seth Klarman: Margin of Safety (pdf)

Welcome, readers! Signup for free email updates at the Finance Trends Newsletter . Update: PDF links removed due to DMCA notice. Please see our extensive Klarman book notes below. New visitors, please check the Finance Trends home page for all new posts. Here's something for anyone who has been trying to get a look at Seth Klarman's now famous, and out of print, 1991 investment book, Margin of Safety .  My knowledge of value investing is pretty much limited to what I've read in Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor (the book which originally popularized the investment concept of a "Margin of Safety"), so check out the wisdom from Seth Klarman and other investing greats in our related posts below. You can also go straight to Ronald Redfield's Margin of Safety book notes .    Related posts: 1. Seth Klarman interviews and Margin of Safety notes     2. Seth Klarman: Lessons from 2008 3. Investing Lessons from Sir John Templeton 4.

Slate profiles Victor Niederhoffer

Slate's recent profile of writer/speculator, Vic Niederhoffer has been getting some attention from traders and finance types in recent days. I thought we'd take a look at it here too, to offer up some possible educational value from Vic's experiences with trading and loss. Here's an excerpt from Slate's profile of Victor Niederhoffer : " I've enjoyed getting your e-mails. It sounds like you've thought a lot about being wrong. Well, the reason you contacted me, to call a spade a spade, is that I'm sort of infamous for having made a big, notorious, terrible error not once but twice in my market career. Let's talk about those errors. The first was your investment in the Thai baht, which pretty much wiped you out when the Thai stock market crashed in 1997. I made so many errors there it's pathetic. I made one of my favorite errors: "The mouse with one hole is quickly cornered." That is key. There are certain decisions you make in li

Clean Money - John Rubino: Book review

Clean Money by John Rubino 274 pages. Hoboken, New Jersey John Wiley & Sons. 2009. 1st Edition. The bouyant stock market environment of the past several years is gone, and the financial wreckage of 2008 is still sharp in our minds as a new year starts to unfold. Given the recent across-the-board-declines in global stock markets (and most asset classes) that have left many investors shell-shocked, you might wonder if there is any good reason to consider the merits of a hot new investment theme, such as clean energy. However, we shouldn't be too hasty to write off all future stock investments. After all, the market declines of 2008 may continue into 2009, but they may also leave interesting investment opportunities in their wake. Which brings us to the subject of this review. John Rubino, author and editor of GreenStockInvesting.com , recently released a new book on renewable energy and clean-tech investing entitled, Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green Tech Boom . In Clean